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Investment Conclusion For 15 years macro events mattered less to economies and to you. The forecasting of macro events got better. But the outcomes were less telling economically & financially. There is now evidence this is reversing. Here’s why! Some very potent events with big …
The AI Trade Too Big To Fail
David Roche argues that US AI investment, now over $3.1 trillion and rising, may be too big to fail without first failing. With China matching ~90% of US model performance at a fraction of the cost, and hundreds of billions in debt and off-balance-sheet commitments propping up hy…
Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
See David Roche on NDTV today: Global Markets Face Middle East War, Russia Risk & Rising Inflation: Could India Still Benefit?
Oil at $85–95, grain prices up 12%, and a widening window for Russian gray-zone escalation in Europe: David maps the macro backdrop most portfolios aren't pricing in. Non-AI margins face a cost-push squeeze while leveraged AI valuations sit exposed to any rate response, a combina…
See David Roche on NDTV Profit: Oil Supply Crisis, AI Bubble Risk, and His Case for China and India
David Roche warns that a 16 to 18 million barrel per day global oil deficit, driven by falling Russian exports and surging Chinese demand, is colliding with an AI investment boom built on circular, highly leveraged financing. He sees no economic slowdown on the horizon to ease oi…
AI's RPOs and Circular Equity Stakes
Following up on our last note on the AI build-out, RPOs aren't spreading risk, they're stacking it. David Roche argues the hyperscaler-to-lab financing chain layers debt twice over, largely off-balance sheet, while circular equity stakes add a fragile, correlated cushion rather t…
Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints
Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints This report looks at Global Chokeholds where geonomics strangles supply of food and energy: The Red Sea, The Gulf, The Black Sea and a few other seas like Azov and the Caspian. El Nino may shortly add the Panama Canal to the list wh…
AI and Lowly Common Sense
AI and Lowly Common Sense T his report analyses the competing AI business models of America and China. It predicts: 1. Which model will win. 2. What the economic consequences of winning or losing are for the US, China and the global AI ecosystem. 3…
Peter Lewis Money Talk - AI Boom, China Equities, Oil Inventories
Catch David Roche on Peter Lewis' Money Talk podcast for June 3, as he examines whether the fever pitch in AI fundraising reflects genuine productivity gains or is repeating the excesses of prior tech cycles. He also considers at what point oil inventory levels move from a pri…
Peter Lewis Money Talk- The Summit, The Fed, The Gulf and AI
Peter Lewis Money Talk- Peter, Sunil Kashyap and I discuss: The Presidential Xi-Trump summit - What to expect = hot air+nothing; Why China will do little about the Gulf and why the Gulf crisis is a slow burn energy crisis with shortages set to worse;