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Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
The Choke Point Chart: How Energy and Food Shocks Are Converging on Global Inflation
The Choke Point Chart: how oil, LPG/LNG, fertiliser and grain all run through the same handful of chokepoints. David Roche's latest read maps the ME energy deficit (18mn bbl/day, plus 30% of global LPG/LNG) against the Black Sea grain shortage, and the "umbilical cord" linking th…
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes We have a new Chokepoint and a New War. It is the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It is the first offensive ever to be based 100% on Drones (with a few missiles thrown in for effect). It has global implications. This all smacks …