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See David Roche on NDTV today: Global Markets Face Middle East War, Russia Risk & Rising Inflation: Could India Still Benefit?
Oil at $85–95, grain prices up 12%, and a widening window for Russian gray-zone escalation in Europe: David maps the macro backdrop most portfolios aren't pricing in. Non-AI margins face a cost-push squeeze while leveraged AI valuations sit exposed to any rate response, a combina…
Navigator: The Ratcliffe Memorandum
Navigator: The Ratcliffe Memorandum. A “spectacular” Russian attack in Europe is possible in the next 6-12 weeks. Whether it happens depends on how seriously Putin takes the Ratcliffe warning. This is a moment to be cautious about the Euro and European assets. But stay long EU de…
The Venezuelan Oil Deal- Shades of Conrad’s Nostromo
The Venezuelan Oil Deal- Shades of Conrad’s Nostromo The “deal” could lift Venezuelan oil output from 1.25mn bpd to 3mn bpd within five years, requiring about US$100bn of investment. Bigger numbers will be advertised. This is the plausible case. That would add roughly 1-2% to glo…
Russia: Increasing Signs of Economic Bankruptcy and Desperation
Vladimir Putin has quietly opened the door to seizing almost any privately owned enterprise in Russia. David Roche unpacks the August 24 decree, its indefinite seizure mechanism, and why the move reads less like strength than fiscal strain. Essential reading for anyone tracking s…
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality Arctic shipping is no longer pure speculation, but is it a real challenge to Suez and Malacca? David Roche weighs Russia's Northern Sea Route against the numbers: the vessel-size limits, icebreaker costs and insurance risk st…
Catch David Roche on Peter Lewis' MONEY TALK - Tuesday August 25, 2026
An insightful but far-from-boring dissection of the US Economic D-Day for Iran; Trump’s latest Trade War with Canada; and US Treasury bond market intervention. Some surpising bones are unearthed. Why D-day could effect Iran’s ability to finance its war through tracing links for U…
Sanctions Without China Mean Nothing”: David Roche’s Explosive Take On Trump’s Iran Strategy on ET Now
See David Roche on ET Now as he dismisses the latest Iran sanctions as toothless, arguing China's oil purchases make enforcement impossible without risking a direct conflict Washington won't pick. He warns the real threat to markets is Treasury "financial repression" in the bond …
Navigator: Divine Intervention
Navigator: Divine Intervention The Oil Supply figures that our research and the US Administration claim to be true are irreconcilable. One or the other will be proven completely wrong in September. Stay long Ice Diesel, EU TTF Gas and Brent (in that order). QS research finds that…
See David Roche on NDTV: Oil Could Hit $125? David Roche's Warning On Oil Prices, US Yields & Indian Markets
David Roche on NDTV: the US Treasury is "playing God" with long-term yields, and he thinks it backfires, spooking foreign bond buyers and edging toward financial repression. His next call: Brent could hit $125 as inventories crash toward critical levels, and he's turned more bull…
The Fed Minute Fumble
The Fed Minute Fumble The FOMC minutes must be assessed in the context of the US Treasury’s apparent intent to reduce long Treasury yields below market-determined levels. Stay short the US dollar. Stay short US Treasuries. Beware of the AI credit bubble, which will now reach new …