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Gold: The Central Banks Aren't Stopping
Central banks bought 41 tonnes of gold in May. Everyone but Russia and Turkey is buying. David Roche explains why sustained official-sector demand and China's steady move away from the dollar reinforce the case for gold support at US$4,000/oz.
NATO SUMMIT: THE ALLIANCE’S FIVE-YEAR GAP
NATO's July 7 summit will be sold as a US win. The real story: a five-year capability gap Europe hasn't figured out how to pay for and a strategic pivot to the Pacific that no future president is likely to reverse.
Navigator: Matters That Matter
Navigator: Matters That Matter Oil and gold are being added back to the Wealth Preservation Portfolio. This report explains why. We are also adding to our long Chinese AI equities and short US AI equities relying upon the research piece: AI and Lowly Common Sense wh…
Strait of Hormuz Exports Jump on July 1 — But the World Is Still Living Off Storage
The world is still running a 6mn bpd crude supply deficit and living off inventory to hide it. David Roche's latest tracker on Strait of Hormuz flows, tanker traffic, and the countdown clock on Gulf storage. Full report attached.
Stablecoin and US Budget Financing – Update & Scenarios.
Stablecoin and US Budget Financing – Update & Scenarios. On current trends, marginal stablecoin supply appears to be funding about 15% of U.S. Treasury bill issuance in 2026. If stablecoin market capitalisation rises from US$323bn to US$400bn this year, stablecoins would fu…
Navigator: Middle East Energy: Fragile Calculus
Navigator: Middle East Energy: Fragile Calculus Pivot: The week opened with hopes that the interim ceasefire would normalise trade flows. Exports appeared to recover temporarily, peaking at 14.5mn bpd on June 24. Shock: The June 25 drone strike on the M/V Ever Lovely tr…
AI and Lowly Common Sense
AI and Lowly Common Sense T his report analyses the competing AI business models of America and China. It predicts: 1. Which model will win. 2. What the economic consequences of winning or losing are for the US, China and the global AI ecosystem. 3…
Navigator: Ochon!
Navigator: Ochon! This report examines 9 ways in which the MoU is a disaster for the Middle East and the security of global energy. Then it expands that analysis to list 4 ways the MoU reduces US Global Reach and Power Projection. All have major economic impacts well withi…
Middle East Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover? Watch the Ships, Not the Rigs
David Roche assesses why Middle East crude supply should recover faster than production capacity over the next six months, as Gulf shipping flows and a 300mb inventory buffer narrow the global oil deficit and push crude toward a $75–85/bbl range.
ME Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover?
ME Energy How Fast Will Supply Recover No! I don’t think the ME Deal addresses any of the major issues or makes the world a better place. But it binds Iran and the US together with a common rope of self-interest. Iran, meaning the IRGC thugs, get back into the dollar flo…