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Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
FED MINUTES: STICKY INFLATION, NO PIVOT – AND JAPAN TAKES THE STRAIN
The Fed's June minutes reveal sticky inflation concerns even as belief in current policy's adequacy fades — David Roche argues rates should rise, not hold. But with the BoJ further behind the curve, he sees the real fallout landing on the Yen (165 to the dollar) and JGB yields,…
Navigator
Navigator. There are no changes in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio (WPP) this week. But shorts on Japanese equities and the Yen are now back on the radar screen. WPP appears at the end of this report The most likely scenario in the Middle East is that Iranian negoti…
Japan Election - Follow Up
Japan Election - Follow Up Investment Conclusion There is no change in strategy: short 10yr JGBs; Neutral Nikkei and Yen (but considering a short Vs SGD, AUD and RMB (where I am already long)). The LDP and its ruling coalition results are even stronger that…
US Fed & ECB
Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the ECB, I…
Central Bank Forecast post US Non-Farm Payrolls
US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sai…
Japan- Turbulence in a Tea Cup
Japanese elections see LDP decimated. There will be a period of uncertainty and volatility for Japanese assets as a messy, weak, coalition is put together at the end of a protracted messier period of haggling. Such volatility is a storm in teacup in the global scale of things. Bu…
Winter of Discontent
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growth gaps to narrow and…
Japan- The LDP leadership election - Why leadership matters
Leadership matters in Japan with the biggest impact being on regional security
Japan Yen Ides Of March
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