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Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat
Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat. This report analyses the putative (not yet confirmed) framework agreement to pause the Middle East War ("the deal") while key issues (such as Iranian de-nuclearisation) are negotiated. The widely leaked adumbrate of the deal …
Energy: The American Chapter – how US bails out the world & then doesn’t!
Energy: The American Chapter – how US bails out the world and then doesn’t! US produces and consumes 20mn bpd of crude oil equivalent. But on top this, the US is exporting 10mn bpd to its “allies” – European, Asian and Australia. Thus, the US is draining its own oil rese…
Navigator – Linking Dots
Navigator – Linking Dots. The global energy supply crisis driven by the Middle East (ME) War is set to get worse. Demand exceeds supply for oil and LNG plus some critical raw materials like sulphur. Absolute product shortages will be generalised by the end of summer. …
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP. (An earlier abbreviated text of this piece was sent to clients on the WhatsApp service at the weekend. Their savvy comments inspired revisions to the original now incorporated below.) New data and field work…
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep The divorce between equity markets and the Middle East crisis is irrational and unsustainable. The energy supply cliff we are approaching makes its collapse imminent.
The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1
The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1 UAE quitting OPEC means: · No change in oil prices or oil supply in short term as UAE oil outlets are constrained by Gulf blockades. · Long term UAE oil output could painlessly double to 6mn bpd. This would …
AfterWar - War Damage and How Economies Recover
AfterWar - Counting War Damage & Mapping How Economies Heal This report counts the economic damage from a forever loss of 10% of global Oil and Gas supply. That’s about half the current shortfall created by the Gulf shipping paralysis. The cost is that global GDP …
A Strategy for Chokeholds
A Strategy for Chokeholds This report is about lessons to be learned from the Middle East blockades for the long term de-risking of portfolios and of supply chains. The former lessons are for portfolio managers and the latter for policy makers. The need is urgent because the…
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop Escalation of the Gulf makes the US policy of cutting off Iran’s oil revenues much more effective. The struggle within the Iranian regime, with the hardliners gaining ascendancy at the moment, makes a negotiated settlement with …