News Library
Showing All Results
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares Putin has lost 1.5 million soldiers, dead and wounded, with monthly losses now outpacing recruitment by nearly 2 to 1. Quantum Strategy's David Roche reads the math as unsustainable, and argues it's pushing toward a calibrated escalation designed to …
David Roche forudså Sovjetunionens fald. Nu giver han Putin ét år (He was one of the few who predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now he gives Putin one year)
📰 He was one of the few who called the collapse of the Soviet Union, decades before it happened, and later called Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year before it happened. Now veteran strategist David Roche says Vladimir Putin has one year left. In this interview with Be…
Russia: Increasing Signs of Economic Bankruptcy and Desperation
Vladimir Putin has quietly opened the door to seizing almost any privately owned enterprise in Russia. David Roche unpacks the August 24 decree, its indefinite seizure mechanism, and why the move reads less like strength than fiscal strain. Essential reading for anyone tracking s…
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality Arctic shipping is no longer pure speculation, but is it a real challenge to Suez and Malacca? David Roche weighs Russia's Northern Sea Route against the numbers: the vessel-size limits, icebreaker costs and insurance risk st…
Putin’s Political Longevity – A Framework of Considerations
Putin’s Political Longevity – A Framework of Considerations by RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), Russia’s leadership vulnerability score has risen from 6.5 to 7.8 in just a year. Quantum Strategy's David Roche uses a historical framework, tested against the USSR in 1991, Eg…
Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
NATO’S ANKARA DECLARATION: WALLPAPER OVER THE CRACKS!
NATO's Ankara summit avoided a public rupture with Trump but David Roche argues the declaration papers over a 50% cut in US assets in European NATO and a "new" Ukraine fund that's 40% recycled EU money. The real story: Europe hasn't told voters that guns will have to come out …
Gold: The Central Banks Aren't Stopping
Central banks bought 41 tonnes of gold in May. Everyone but Russia and Turkey is buying. David Roche explains why sustained official-sector demand and China's steady move away from the dollar reinforce the case for gold support at US$4,000/oz.