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Catch David Roche on Peter Lewis' MONEY TALK - Tuesday 21 July 2026
Money Talk: An in depth debate with Peter Lewis, Mark Michelson and David Roche on THE MEANING OF MOONSHOT - the nature of the US - China struggle for AI Global Supremacy and does Trumps accusations against China fit into a pattern to subvert the mid- term elections. And all th…
Navigator – Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens
Navigator: Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens This week we check the levels in the engine room: oil, water and tokens. Oil, The Global crude oil supply deficit has jumped to 15mn bpd. At this rate of depletion oil inventories get tight in September and even the U…
Putin's Political Longevity – A Framework of Considerations
Putin's Political Longevity - A Framework of Considerations This report sets a Framework for gauging when Putin will go. Conditions are prescribed, using detailed analysis of historical precedent, which are already setting the scene for this to happen. The Framework exp…
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Why Hasn't the Oil Price Gone Stratospheric? (Client Q&A)
Gulf paralysis has removed an estimated 20mn bpd of crude from global markets — around 12% of world consumption once diverted pipeline flows and shadow-tanker volumes through Hormuz are netted out. This note walks through David Roche's supply-deficit arithmetic, identifies Chin…
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes We have a new Chokepoint and a New War. It is the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It is the first offensive ever to be based 100% on Drones (with a few missiles thrown in for effect). It has global implications. This all smacks …
The X-Disruptions: A Mid-2026 Scorecard
We called eight "X-Disruptions" back in December 2025, so six months on, we graded our own homework. The verdict: Fed independence, BoJ/Yen stress, and Europe's defense build-out landed with striking precision, while our bearish equity call missed, but only on US/US-AI names, e…
David Roche on NDTV Profit - Breaking down uncertainty and any new normalcy ?
Is a return to normalcy just a myth in the ongoing back-and-forth between Iran and the US? David Roche broke it down on NDTV Profit yesterday.
See David Roche on NDTV Profit discussing recent events in the Gulf
Watch David Roche on NDTV Profit today as he talks about the events in the Gulf over the past 24 hours. Is this just a flash in the pan, or something to be concerned about?
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
FED MINUTES: STICKY INFLATION, NO PIVOT – AND JAPAN TAKES THE STRAIN
The Fed's June minutes reveal sticky inflation concerns even as belief in current policy's adequacy fades — David Roche argues rates should rise, not hold. But with the BoJ further behind the curve, he sees the real fallout landing on the Yen (165 to the dollar) and JGB yields,…