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Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
David Roche forudså Sovjetunionens fald. Nu giver han Putin ét år (He was one of the few who predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now he gives Putin one year)
📰 He was one of the few who called the collapse of the Soviet Union, decades before it happened, and later called Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year before it happened. Now veteran strategist David Roche says Vladimir Putin has one year left. In this interview with Be…
NDTV Profit: Oil At $125? David Roche Warns Of A September Market Shock | Trump, Iran & Inflation
See David Roche on NDTV Profit as he warns investors are dangerously complacent — pricing in stable disinflation even as oil threatens to spike to $125 and Iran's regional posture tightens supply further. He says inflation can flare back up far faster than markets expect, and Sep…
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
NATO’S ANKARA DECLARATION: WALLPAPER OVER THE CRACKS!
NATO's Ankara summit avoided a public rupture with Trump but David Roche argues the declaration papers over a 50% cut in US assets in European NATO and a "new" Ukraine fund that's 40% recycled EU money. The real story: Europe hasn't told voters that guns will have to come out …
Whispers from Implausibility
Whispers from Implausibility. If you believe in an effective peace deal, then forget oil! The real plate-shift will be China and the EU. If peace breaks out Russia can offer China little – economically speaking. The US won’t. And the EU must. Europe an…
Ukraine: US 28 Point Plan is a Yalta moment for Europe.
President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan. President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan is the often repeated but now irrefutably defined proof that the US in on the same page as Putin about the causes and resolutions of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this time is different…
The Truce Proposal
The Truce Proposal Investment Conclusion The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe and …
The War of the End of the (NATO) World.
This report charts the effects of the breakdown of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance on geo-economics and what to do about in portfolios. The Wealth Preservation Portfolio is at the end.