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EU Sovereign Debt Crisis - The ECB Toolbox
The ECB will "do whatever it takes" in a Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but not before spreads are much wider. QS maps the ECB tool box, from TPI and PEPP to OMT and the ESM, shows who authorises each tool, and explains why we stay short French and Spanish 10 yr bonds and the Eu…
EU Sovereign Debt Crisis
We are heading for an EU sovereign debt crisis. France has no political way out of crisis, Spain's youth-driven housing crisis is likely to bring right-wing populism to power, and Germany and Italy are little better. The ECB will ultimately step in rather than end the euro, but t…
QS and Sovereign Bonds: Short France, Long Switzerland
Why this note? QS has been short French long-dated sovereign bonds (OATs) since 2024, long before it was fashionable, and today we changed the long end of that position. The reasons for the trade were never American. They were French, and the evidence is now in the numbers
Transatlantic Fuel Standoff
How US pressure on Europe’s diesel reserves could affect prices and energy security. The United States is reportedly asking France and Germany to release diesel from Europe’s emergency reserves. Washington wants to lower fuel prices quickly. Europe wants to keep enough fuel in re…
Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes We have a new Chokepoint and a New War. It is the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It is the first offensive ever to be based 100% on Drones (with a few missiles thrown in for effect). It has global implications. This all smacks …
Airline Fuel & the Air France/KLM Assurance (Client Q&A example)
Airline Fuel & the Air France/KLM Assurance: When a client flagged that Air France-KLM's CEO had publicly assured markets of no fuel shortage this summer, they wanted to know: does that undermine the thesis? We broke down exactly why it doesn't, a slashed schedule, pre-crisis he…
Oddbins
Investment Conclusion There are no changes in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. But long/overweight Japanese equities is being put on watch. Investors who cut Yen long positions in Yen may consider re-entering them. The BoJ has no excuse not to lean into Taka…
Odd bins
Odd bins. Investment Conclusion When the bubble bursts, will it be a correction or a catastrophe? Preview and thoughts next. Increase exposure to safe haven assets (see Wealth Preservation Portfolio (WPP) at the end). AUD and SGD longs are being added to the WPF.
France - Chaos
The French Political Crisis- Resignation of PM Sebastian Lecornu. Macron is running out of rope. The latest chapter in the poltical crisis moves France closer to another legislative election at the very least. If that were to happen then a populist government led by the…