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Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints
Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints This report looks at Global Chokeholds where geonomics strangles supply of food and energy: The Red Sea, The Gulf, The Black Sea and a few other seas like Azov and the Caspian. El Nino may shortly add the Panama Canal to the list wh…
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
Navigator – Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens
Navigator: Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens This week we check the levels in the engine room: oil, water and tokens. Oil, The Global crude oil supply deficit has jumped to 15mn bpd. At this rate of depletion oil inventories get tight in September and even the U…
Putin's Political Longevity – A Framework of Considerations
Putin's Political Longevity - A Framework of Considerations This report sets a Framework for gauging when Putin will go. Conditions are prescribed, using detailed analysis of historical precedent, which are already setting the scene for this to happen. The Framework exp…
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Why Hasn't the Oil Price Gone Stratospheric? (Client Q&A)
Gulf paralysis has removed an estimated 20mn bpd of crude from global markets — around 12% of world consumption once diverted pipeline flows and shadow-tanker volumes through Hormuz are netted out. This note walks through David Roche's supply-deficit arithmetic, identifies Chin…
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes We have a new Chokepoint and a New War. It is the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It is the first offensive ever to be based 100% on Drones (with a few missiles thrown in for effect). It has global implications. This all smacks …
The X-Disruptions: A Mid-2026 Scorecard
We called eight "X-Disruptions" back in December 2025, so six months on, we graded our own homework. The verdict: Fed independence, BoJ/Yen stress, and Europe's defense build-out landed with striking precision, while our bearish equity call missed, but only on US/US-AI names, e…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
FED MINUTES: STICKY INFLATION, NO PIVOT – AND JAPAN TAKES THE STRAIN
The Fed's June minutes reveal sticky inflation concerns even as belief in current policy's adequacy fades — David Roche argues rates should rise, not hold. But with the BoJ further behind the curve, he sees the real fallout landing on the Yen (165 to the dollar) and JGB yields,…
NATO’S ANKARA DECLARATION: WALLPAPER OVER THE CRACKS!
NATO's Ankara summit avoided a public rupture with Trump but David Roche argues the declaration papers over a 50% cut in US assets in European NATO and a "new" Ukraine fund that's 40% recycled EU money. The real story: Europe hasn't told voters that guns will have to come out …