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US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies The FOMC meeting will change nothing. But the Dot Plots will be telling for the future. And the things to watch for are: • Hints at the end of forward guidance. • Replacing the inflation target currently used by the Fe…
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Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Middle East Oil Supply: David Roche's weekend WhatsApp update — now published in full for your reference.
Navigator: Middle East – All Change Here! EU-China Trade – War Without a Strategy. And the Sad End of Elvira Nabiullina.
Navigator: Middle East – All Change Here! EU-China Trade – War Without a Strategy. And the Sad End of Elvira Nabiullina. Here's why you need to read this! The three changes that will affect assets: 1. This Middle East "Deal" may get tankers moving and Iran producing o…
Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Despite mounting claims that clandestine operations are freeing tankers from the Gulf, QS hard data tells a different story: a steady 2.0mn bpd via the Strait of Hormuz, a 12–13mn bpd daily supply shortfall with no change, and a China driving paper price suppression through stra…
Navigator: China - EU Trade Hostilities & Energy Myths
Navigator China EU Trade Hostilities & Energy Myths Four themes this week. (WhatsApp clients have received early briefing on themes in BLUE) 1. Trade War between the EU and China is now inevitable. 2. Chinese sell off of strategic crude oil reserves an…
Oil Prices & China's Vanishing Imports
What started as a WhatsApp update to clients on Friday is now a formal QS Macro Research Note. As headlines swirled around oil supplies and China's import trajectory, David Roche flagged a dynamic most market participants are missing: it's not demand destruction driving the pric…
Airline Fuel & the Air France/KLM Assurance (Client Q&A example)
Airline Fuel & the Air France/KLM Assurance: When a client flagged that Air France-KLM's CEO had publicly assured markets of no fuel shortage this summer, they wanted to know: does that undermine the thesis? We broke down exactly why it doesn't, a slashed schedule, pre-crisis he…
Navigator: ME: 7 Days in May
Navigator: ME: 7 Days in May. This is the report version of a WhatsApp com sent to clients on June 1. Nothing is moving in the Straits of Hormuz. The ME hole in crude oil supply means the world is on a glide path to fall over the supply cliff in summer and beyond. But…
The Tomorrow of Financial Repression
The Tomorrow of Financial Repression Nationalist Economic Policies, Protectionism and Financial Repression are usually three peas in a historical pod. We have the first two peas. This piece checks if there are incipient signs of the third, Financial Repression, being o…
Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat
Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat. This report analyses the putative (not yet confirmed) framework agreement to pause the Middle East War ("the deal") while key issues (such as Iranian de-nuclearisation) are negotiated. The widely leaked adumbrate of the deal …