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US Middle East Position
QS expects no substantive US military action before the Midterms, with a third Strike Group giving only a short window for temporary escalation. The main risk is Iran escalating and putting further military stress on the Gulf States.
Transatlantic Fuel Standoff
How US pressure on Europe’s diesel reserves could affect prices and energy security. The United States is reportedly asking France and Germany to release diesel from Europe’s emergency reserves. Washington wants to lower fuel prices quickly. Europe wants to keep enough fuel in re…
US Derivatives: Small Tail to Wag Big Dog
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION The bottom line of all the bottom lines is higher inflation, interest rate stress in AI and private credit, and central banks forced to tighten. US energy prices go up, not down. Global refined product supply falls, agriculture takes another supply side hit,…
Greenland: The Deal and Its Northern Shadow
The Trump Greenland Deal is a lot more than a rejig of the 1951 Agreement to grant the US more military and economic rights in Greenland. It goes far beyond that. It is a pretty significant building block in Trump’s Donroe Hemispheric Architecture and a major retreat by the EU an…
Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
US Oil Inventories: Constrained Reserves Meet a Tightening Commercial Deficit
Commercial US crude and distillate stocks are already below their 30-day floors, and a 25% SPR access restriction leaves far less real cushion than headline inventory numbers suggest. David Roche's latest note lays out the case for either a near-term price squeeze or a fresh roun…
Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
FED MINUTES: STICKY INFLATION, NO PIVOT – AND JAPAN TAKES THE STRAIN
The Fed's June minutes reveal sticky inflation concerns even as belief in current policy's adequacy fades — David Roche argues rates should rise, not hold. But with the BoJ further behind the curve, he sees the real fallout landing on the Yen (165 to the dollar) and JGB yields,…